8/12/13 Idaho DEQ Smoke Forecast

Smoke Forecast for 8/12:

·         Southwest Idaho can expect to see moderate to significant smoke impacts from the Elk and Pony Complex fires.  Winds will take the smoke from these fires to the north during the day.  During the evening, the smoke will drain into Mountain Home and the SE Treasure Valley, as well as the mountain valleys.  The heaviest impacted areas will continue to be Lowman, Atlanta, and Idaho City and surrounding areas.  Smoke will be heaviest during the nighttime and early morning hours and should clear out some during the day.

·         South-central Idaho will be impacted by the Beaver Creek Complex fires.  North winds will take the smoke into Stanley and Ketchum areas.  During the evening the smoke will drain into the Snake River Valley. Smoke will be heaviest during the nighttime and early morning hours and should clear out some during the day.  Ketchum is currently experiencing air quality in the unhealthy.

·         North Idaho can expect light smoke impacts from the fires in SW Canada as well as smoke transported from the Elk and Pony Complex fires in SW Idaho.  As seen in the satellite image above, the smoke is being transported across Boundary County.

Air Quality Advisories:

·         Ada and Canyon counties are under a Yellow Air Quality Alert for today.

·         DEQ has issued a Stage 1 Air Pollution Forecast and Caution for today for Boise, Elmore, Camas, Blaine, and Custer Counties.

Significant Fires impacting Idaho:

·         Elk Complex:  10 miles SW of Pine, started 8/8

o    Currently 80,365 acres and 5% contained.  Increased by 50,365 acres on Sunday

·         Pony Complex: 12 miles N of Mountain Home, started 8/8

o    Currently 119,543 acres and 20% contained.  Increased by 71,506 acres on Sunday

·         Beaver Creek Complex: 4 miles NW of Fairfield

o    Currently 34,870 acres and 16 % contained.  Increased by 2,054 acres on Sunday

·         Lodgepole:  10 miles W of Challis

o    Minimal fire behavior, light to moderate smoke production.

·         Gold Pan Complex:  35 miles SW of Conner, MT (in the Bitterroot NF)

o    Minimal fire behavior, light to moderate smoke production.

·         State:  11 W of Malad (just across the UT/ID Border) – started 8/8

o    Currently 15,000 acres and 38% contained

·         Fires in SW Canada:  The smoke is impacting northern Idaho.

Monitoring Summary:

Below is a summary of the air quality over the weekend and today’s forecast.  The table only includes those areas in the Moderate or above AQI category. (This information includes monitoring information for areas outside the 5 Indian Reservation Boundaries in Idaho)

Location	Friday	Saturday	Sunday	Today’s Forecast
Treasure Valley	Good	Moderate	Good	Moderate
Idaho City	Moderate	Moderate Unhealthy (1 & 3-hour )	USG Unhealthy (1 & 3-hour)	USG, with periods of Unhealthy
Garden Valley	Good	Moderate	Moderate	Moderate
McCall	Good	Moderate	Moderate	Moderate
Lowman	Moderate	USG (8-hour)	Unhealthy	USG, with periods of Unhealthy
Atlanta	Moderate (1-hour)	Moderate	Unhealthy	USG, with periods of Unhealthy
Challis	Moderate (1 &  8 hour)	Moderate (USG for 1-hour)	USG	USG, with periods of Unhealthy
Ketchum	Good	Good	Moderate	USG, with periods of Unhealthy
Latah County	Good	Moderate	Good	Good
Lewiston	Moderate	Moderate	Good	Good
Idaho County	Moderate	Moderate	Good	Good

Figure 1.  MODIS satellite image from Saturday (8/11) afternoon

4 emergency monitors have been installed in Idaho to help monitor smoke impacts from wildfires:

·         DEQ installed a monitor in Challis for the Lodgepole fire. The information can be found at http://app.airsis.com/USFS/ Choose monitor #Idaho1004

·         The USFS installed monitors in Lowman, Atlanta, and Challis.  The information can be found at http://www.wrcc.dri.edu/cgi-bin/smoke.pl

o    Lowman monitor is Smoke#19

o    Atlanta monitor is Smoke#13

o    Challis monitor is Smoke#21

o    Users should be aware that the Forest Service site reports the data in Coordinated Universal Time (UTC).  To convert from UTS to Mountain Daylight Time, subtract 6 hours.

View DEQ near-real time monitoring at:  http://airquality.deq.idaho.gov/

Smoke forecasts are dependent on predicted fire growth and weather.  If conditions change unexpectedly, impacts could occur.  Communities nearby active fires may experience periods of air quality which are Moderate (visibility of 6-10 miles).  When visibility starts to go below 5 miles, sensitive groups should minimize outdoor activities.  Everyone else should minimize prolonged or physical activity outdoors.  Refer to the Smoke and Health Tab on the Idaho Smoke Information Blog for additional health information. 

Your eyes are your best tools to determine if it’s safe to be outside.  Even if you smell smoke, the air quality may still be good. 

AQI Category	Visibility (miles)
Good	11+
Moderate	6-10
Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups	3-5
Unhealthy	1½  -2¾
Very Unhealthy	1-1¼
Hazardous	Less than 1