09/25/2014 Idaho DEQ Smoke Forecast

Updated 1000am MDT Thursday, September 25, 2014

Valid through Noon MDT Friday, September 26, 2014

Smoke Outlook

The areas of concern today will be focused on the Clearwater Drainage as well as the Lower Snake River Plain late this afternoon.  It should be noted that widespread haze and light smoke aloft is forecast across all of western Idaho and north to the Canadian border.  Smoke impacts were relatively local yesterday as all of DEQ’s monitors were in the Good category for the 24hr AQI except for Potlatch, Cottonwood, and Boise.  The temporary monitor in Riggins was also in the Good category while the temporary monitor in Lowell was in the Very Unhealthy category.

The upper level ridge pattern will be oriented from southwest to northeast along a line running from New Mexico through Nebraska and into South Dakota while an upper level low pressure system resides over British Columbia with an elongated trough running down the coast to California.  This will continue to bring dry conditions with warm southwest flow over southern Idaho; however a cold front will begin to enter northern Idaho this morning/afternoon and southern Idaho late this afternoon-around 5 or 6pm.  It is not out of the question to see isolated showers across northern Idaho this afternoon; however most of the organized precipitation looks to occur later this evening.  Skies are expected to be mostly sunny all day with mostly cloudy skies from Lewiston east to Kamiah and north to the Canadian border.  Surface wind speeds will be between 8-12 mph with south-southwest flow in the Southwest SMA outside of the Treasure Valley while wind speeds are much stronger across the rest of southern Idaho with sustained speeds from 10-25 mph and gusts to 30 mph with spots along the Lost River Range reaching 35-40 mph.  Mixing heights are forecast to be between 3,000-8,000 feet AGL.  Transport wind speed is forecast to be in the range of 10-30 mph.  Transport wind direction is forecast to be south-southwest.  Northern Idaho is forecast to have a slightly more zonal component today with speeds from 8-12 mph this afternoon. 

Smoke impacts today will be focused on late afternoon transport of the King Fire in California into southwest Idaho.  Widespread light smoke looks to cover Idaho ranging west of a line running from Mountain Home to Missoula and into Canada.  Finally, smoke within the Clearwater drainage is forecast to linger today before pushing to the northeast late this afternoon/evening.

 DEQ has installed a monitor in Riggins. http://app.airsis.com/USFS/fleet.aspx
 DEQ has installed a monitor in Lowell. http://app.airsis.com/USFS/fleet.aspx

o    Riggins monitor is #1001

o    Lowell monitor is #1002

View real time smoke monitoring at:  http://www.airnow.gov/index.cfm?action=topics.smoke_wildfires

View DEQ near-real time monitoring at: http://airquality.deq.idaho.gov/

Smoke forecasts are dependent on predicted fire growth and weather.  If conditions change unexpectedly, impacts could occur.  When visibility starts to go below 5 miles, sensitive groups should minimize outdoor activities.  Everyone else should minimize prolonged or physical activity outdoors.  Refer to the Smoke and Health Tab on the Idaho Smoke Information Blog for additional health information. 

Your eyes are your best tools to determine if it’s safe to be outside.  Even if you smell smoke, the air quality may still be good. 

AQI Category	Visibility (miles)
Good	11+
Moderate	6-10
Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups	3-5
Unhealthy	1½  -2¾
Very Unhealthy	1-1¼
Hazardous	Less than 1