07/29/2016 Idaho DEQ Smoke Forecast

Updated 8 am MDT Thursday, July 29, 2016

Valid through Noon MDT Saturday, July 30, 2016

Smoke Outlook

Air quality is forecast to remain in the Good to Moderate air quality category across the state and air quality has continued to improve.  Minor impacts are near the Pioneer Fire outside Idaho City where current monitor readings are elevated into the Moderate category.  Additional impacts are being recorded east in the Ketchum area which is also currently reading in the Moderate category.  Expect higher readings in the evening and early morning before improving during the day.

Expect west-northwest advection of mid and upper levels once again today before unstable air and monsoon moisture enter the southern Idaho by Saturday.  Mixing heights are expected to reach 8,000-10,000 feet AGL today with good ventilation across all airsheds.  Winds will follow the Snake River Plain and be from the northwest-west-southwest from west to east at 10-15 mph.  Outside of that area, expect surface winds to be from the northwest-west at 5-10 mph in the Central Idaho Mountains and 10-15 mph across the Southern and Southeast Highlands.  Transport winds will be from the northwest at 10-15 mph.  Locally, the Salmon area will experience winds from the northeast at 2-8 mph.

Tonight, surface level smoke will drain down into the Snake River Plain in and around the Arco Desert region before dispersing through the Middle and Upper Snake.  Impacts are expected to be minimal, again most likely affecting Ketchum and Salmon as well as Pocatello and Idaho Falls to lesser degrees.

This will be the last update unless conditions deteriorate.

Air Quality Advisories:

·         None at this time

View real time smoke monitoring at:  http://www.airnow.gov/index.cfm?action=topics.smoke_wildfires

View DEQ near-real time monitoring at: http://airquality.deq.idaho.gov/

Smoke forecasts are dependent on predicted fire growth and weather.  If conditions change unexpectedly, impacts could occur.  When visibility starts to go below 5 miles, sensitive groups should minimize outdoor activities.  Everyone else should minimize prolonged or physical activity outdoors.  Visit the Idaho Smoke Blog for more information at http://idsmoke.blogspot.com/

Your eyes are your best tools to determine if it’s safe to be outside.  Even if you smell smoke, the air quality may still be good. 

AQI Category	Visibility (miles)
Good	11+
Moderate	6-10
Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups	3-5
Unhealthy	1½  -2¾
Very Unhealthy	1-1¼
Hazardous	Less than 1

How to estimate air quality based on visibility for areas without an air quality monitor or airport visibility estimate:

a. Face away from the sun.

b. Determine the limit of your visible range by looking for targets at known distances (miles).

c. Visible range is when an object you can easily see in the distance disappears.

d. Use the visibility values above to determine the local wildfire smoke category.

07/28/2016 Idaho DEQ Smoke Forecast

Updated 9am MDT Thursday, July 28, 2016

Valid through Noon MDT Friday, July 29, 2016

Smoke Outlook

Air quality is forecast to remain in the Good to Moderate air quality category across the state and generally air quality has improved.  Continued impacts are near the Pioneer Fire outside Idaho City where current monitor readings are in the Moderate category.  Additional impacts are being recorded southeast into Pocatello and Franklin and the valley floors within the Southeast Highlands.  Expect nocturnal drainage into Salmon will occur this evening due to the proximity of the Comet Fire.  Impacts into Salmon will depend on fire activity.  The northern Magic Valley should expect to see light impacts throughout the day today and into this evening as the northwest winds bring smoke into the region.

A northwest flow pattern has established aloft today after the passage of a weak disturbance yesterday.  This will bring slightly cooler temperatures and an increase to surface and transport winds.  This will promote better dispersion as transport winds will be higher and mixing heights will be higher this afternoon.  Except surface winds from the northwest-west at 5-10 mph with wind speeds from 10-15 mph within the Snake River Plain from the Upper Treasure Valley to the Pocatello region and south into the Southern and Southeast Highlands. The Upper Snake River Plain should expect to see winds from the southwest around Idaho Falls and northwest elsewhere at 5-10 mph.  Mixing heights will range from 5,000-8,000 feet AGL today.  Friday will see a similar pattern with slightly warmer temperatures but similar wind speeds and directions.

Tonight, surface level smoke will drain down the valleys from Salmon south into the Upper Snake River Plain, northern Magic Valley, and Upper Treasure Valley once again. During the day tomorrow, this will lift and move to the east.  By sundown tomorrow evening, expect to see higher concentrations along a line running from Fairfield to Arco, north of highway 20 and into the Big and Little Wood drainages.  Expect consistent moderate impacts to the Idaho City area and Salmon area.  There is a chance for light impacts within the Teton Valley, and St. Anthony and Ashton regions as smoke from fires in western Wyoming advects westward along the valley floors this evening and early tomorrow morning.

Air Quality Advisories:

·         None at this time

View real time smoke monitoring at:  http://www.airnow.gov/index.cfm?action=topics.smoke_wildfires

View DEQ near-real time monitoring at: http://airquality.deq.idaho.gov/

Smoke forecasts are dependent on predicted fire growth and weather.  If conditions change unexpectedly, impacts could occur.  When visibility starts to go below 5 miles, sensitive groups should minimize outdoor activities.  Everyone else should minimize prolonged or physical activity outdoors.  Visit the Idaho Smoke Blog for more information at http://idsmoke.blogspot.com/

Your eyes are your best tools to determine if it’s safe to be outside.  Even if you smell smoke, the air quality may still be good. 

AQI Category	Visibility (miles)
Good	11+
Moderate	6-10
Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups	3-5
Unhealthy	1½  -2¾
Very Unhealthy	1-1¼
Hazardous	Less than 1

How to estimate air quality based on visibility for areas without an air quality monitor or airport visibility estimate:

a. Face away from the sun.

b. Determine the limit of your visible range by looking for targets at known distances (miles).

c. Visible range is when an object you can easily see in the distance disappears.

d. Use the visibility values above to determine the local wildfire smoke category.

7/27/2016 Idaho Department of Health and Welfare: Wildfires and Your Health

Wildfire Smoke Begins Impacting Air Quality for Idaho Residents

07/27/2016 Idaho DEQ Smoke Forecast

Updated 12 Noon MDT Wednesday, July 27, 2016

Valid through Noon MDT Thursday, July 28, 2016

Smoke Outlook

Air quality is forecast to remain in the Good to Moderate air quality category across the state, although short term readings are currently in the Unhealthy category in Idaho City due to the proximity of the Pioneer Fire.  The Comet Fire began yesterday north of Salmon with light impacts observed on monitors; nocturnal drainage this evening will likely bring ample smoke into the vicinity.  The strongest smoke impacts are occurring in the vicinity of Idaho City due to the proximity of the Pioneer Fire; however, impacts are being recorded to the southwest in Nampa, east through the Snake River Plain into Twin Falls, and southeast into Pocatello and Franklin and the low spots within the Southeast Highlands.  Again, nocturnal drainage into Salmon will occur this evening due to the proximity of the Comet Fire.

A weak upper level disturbance will pass through the Central Idaho Mountains today and will provide another day of unstable air with isolated afternoon thunderstorms.  This will be restricted to the complex and high elevation terrain.  Due to the warm mid-level, mixing at the valley floors will be limited to around 3,000-5,000 feet AGL today with light transport winds at 8-12 mph from the northwest-west-southwest across the Snake River Plain from west to east.  A generally westerly component will drive the mean flow today under a zonal flow pattern.  Salmon should expect to see northeast transport into the valley today.  While directions will not change much tomorrow, wind speeds will increase and promote increased mixing heights and transport of smoke to higher levels within the atmosphere.

Tonight, surface level smoke will drain down the valleys from Salmon south into the Upper Snake River Plain, northern Magic Valley, and Upper Treasure Valley once again. During the day, this will move to the south into the Southern and Southeast Highlands.  By sundown tomorrow evening, expect to see higher concentrations enter the Upper Treasure Valley.  Expect consistent moderate impacts to the Idaho City area and Salmon area.

Air Quality Advisories:

·         None at this time

View real time smoke monitoring at:  http://www.airnow.gov/index.cfm?action=topics.smoke_wildfires

View DEQ near-real time monitoring at:  http://airquality.deq.idaho.gov/

Smoke forecasts are dependent on predicted fire growth and weather.  If conditions change unexpectedly, impacts could occur.  When visibility starts to go below 5 miles, sensitive groups should minimize outdoor activities.  Everyone else should minimize prolonged or physical activity outdoors.  Visit the Idaho Smoke Blog for more information at http://idsmoke.blogspot.com/

AQI Category	Visibility (miles)
Good	11+
Moderate	6-10
Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups	3-5
Unhealthy	1½  -2¾
Very Unhealthy	1-1¼
Hazardous	Less than 1

Your eyes are your best tools to determine if it’s safe to be outside. Even if you smell smoke, the air quality may still be good.

How to estimate air quality based on visibility for areas without an air quality monitor or airport visibility estimate:

a. Face away from the sun.

b. Determine the limit of your visible range by looking for targets at known distances (miles).

c. Visible range is when an object you can easily see in the distance disappears.

d. Use the visibility values above to determine the local wildfire smoke category.