Updated 1000am MDT Wednesday,
August 13, 2014
Valid through Noon MDT
Thursday, August 14, 2014
Smoke Outlook
Idaho DEQ has issued a
Stage 1 Forecast and Caution for the following areas:
- Latah, Nez Perce, Idaho, Lewis, and
Clearwater Counties (Off the Nez Perce Reservation)-effective
through 10:00am PDT August 13, 2014, at which time is will be
re-evaluated and either extended or lifted.
The
areas of concern continue to be in the Clearwater Basin due to the proximity of
local fires, there is limited transport from fires in neighboring states;
however fires near the borders are likely impacting the area to some degree.
Yesterday, all of DEQ’s north Idaho locations experienced impacts from wildfire
smoke with 24hr AQI values of Moderate with Salmon also experiencing Moderate
values.
Aloft, the strong upper level low pressure system will be
centered over northern Oregon. There is
a diffluent region above southern Idaho today which will generally promote
thunderstorm development. Southwest flow
aloft and monsoon moisture advection will continue over southern Idaho and
interact with small shortwaves that are spinning around the main low pressure
system. Convective indices are very high
today suggesting that thunderstorms are likely this afternoon with some
shadowing in the Lower Snake River Plain.
Gusts up to 60 mph and small hail are also possible near
thunderstorms. Morning inversions will allow smoke to pool in
the drainages before lifting with warming temperatures. Winds will transport the smoke primarily to
the north this afternoon.
There
is a RED FLAG WARNING across most of the state covering all of northern Idaho
and most of the southwest that runs through tomorrow afternoon. Conditions remain favorable this afternoon
for lightning and rain/hail across the state.
Fuel conditions will provide high potential for new starts with 44 new starts due to lightning
yesterday. The Boise NWS noted that the number of strikes yesterday
was the second-highest daily total for an August day since record keeping began
in 2000. Wind speeds at the surface will
range from 5-15 mph across the state with gusts approaching 60 mph near
thunderstorms with the potential for isolated super-cell development and severe
thunderstorms across southern Idaho with large hail and damaging winds. Generally,
the surface wind direction will be from the south-southwest. There is a slight risk of severe
thunderstorms across central Idaho from the Central Mountains north to the
Idaho Panhandle.
The
USFS has installed a monitor at the Fenn Ranger Station. The information
can be found at http://www.wrcc.dri.edu/cgi-bin/smoke.pl
·
Fenn monitor is Smoke#25
·
Users should be aware that the Forest Service
site reports the data in Coordinated Universal Time (UTC). To convert
from UTC to Mountain Daylight Time, subtract 6 hours
Smoke
forecasts are dependent on predicted fire growth and weather. If
conditions change unexpectedly, impacts could occur. When visibility
starts to go below 5 miles, sensitive groups should minimize outdoor
activities. Everyone else should minimize prolonged or physical activity
outdoors. Refer to the Smoke
and Health Tab on the Idaho Smoke Information Blog for additional health information.
Your eyes are your best tools to determine if it’s safe to be
outside. Even if you smell smoke, the air quality may still be
good.
|
AQI Category
|
Visibility (miles)
|
|
Good
|
11+
|
|
Moderate
|
6-10
|
|
Unhealthy for
Sensitive Groups
|
3-5
|
|
Unhealthy
|
1½
-2¾
|
|
Very Unhealthy
|
1-1¼
|
|
Hazardous
|
Less
than 1
|
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