Updated 1000am MDT Thursday,
August 14, 2014
Valid through Noon MDT
Friday, August 15, 2014
Smoke Outlook
Idaho DEQ has issued a
Stage 1 Forecast and Caution for the following areas:
- Latah, Nez Perce, Idaho, Lewis, and
Clearwater Counties (Off the Nez Perce Reservation)-effective
through 10:00am PDT August 14, 2014, at which time is will be
re-evaluated and either extended or lifted.
The
areas of concern continue to be in the Clearwater Basin due to the proximity of
local fires, there is limited transport from fires in neighboring states;
however fires near the borders are likely impacting the area to some degree.
Yesterday, all of DEQ’s north Idaho locations experienced impacts from wildfire
smoke with 24hr AQI values of Moderate with Salmon also experiencing Moderate
values.
Grangeville and Cottonwood experienced at 24hr AQI of Unhealthy while the USFS
Emergency Monitor located at the Fenn Ranger Station also recorded a 24hr AQI
of Unhealthy with hourly values in the Very Unhealthy and Hazardous.
Aloft, the strong upper level low pressure system will be
centered over northern Oregon. Southwest
flow aloft and monsoon moisture advection will continue over southern Idaho and
interact with small shortwaves that are spinning around the main low pressure
system. Convective indices are very high
today suggesting that thunderstorms are likely this afternoon with some
shadowing in the Lower Snake River Plain.
Morning inversions will
allow smoke to pool in the drainages before lifting with warming
temperatures. Winds will transport the
smoke primarily to the north this afternoon, albeit it will not move far. Conditions remain favorable this afternoon
for isolated thunderstorms with lightning and rain/hail across the elevated
regions of the state. Wind speeds at the surface will range from 5-10
mph across Idaho with gusts approaching 60 mph near thunderstorms with small
hail and damaging winds. Generally, the surface wind direction will
be from the south-southwest with a northerly component across Central Idaho. Mixing
heights will range from 2,000-5,000ft AGL with transport winds from the
southwest at 5-15 mph.
Smoke impacts today
will continue to be strongest across the Clearwater with locally heavy impacts
in and around the Grangeville area, north into the L-C Valley, and to a lesser
extent, north into the Idaho Panhandle due to the proximity of the Big Cougar,
High Range, and Johnson Bar fires. Smoke
will settle into the drainages again this evening. Transport to the north looks to be quite
limited today. Current BlueSky model
runs suggest that smoke will linger in the areas close to the source rather than
advect out of the area. The 24hr AQI
forecasts for the Grangeville, Lewiston, McCall, Pinehurst and St. Maries areas
are in the Moderate category for Thursday.
Higher values should be expected in the morning before the inversion
breaks.
The
USFS has installed a monitor at the Fenn Ranger Station. The information
can be found at http://www.wrcc.dri.edu/cgi-bin/smoke.pl
·
Fenn monitor is Smoke#25
·
Users should be aware that the Forest Service
site reports the data in Coordinated Universal Time (UTC). To convert
from UTC to Mountain Daylight Time, subtract 6 hours
Smoke
forecasts are dependent on predicted fire growth and weather. If
conditions change unexpectedly, impacts could occur. When visibility
starts to go below 5 miles, sensitive groups should minimize outdoor
activities. Everyone else should minimize prolonged or physical activity
outdoors. Refer to the Smoke
and Health Tab on the Idaho Smoke Information Blog for additional health information.
Your eyes are your best tools to determine if it’s safe to be
outside. Even if you smell smoke, the air quality may still be good.
|
AQI Category
|
Visibility (miles)
|
|
Good
|
11+
|
|
Moderate
|
6-10
|
|
Unhealthy for
Sensitive Groups
|
3-5
|
|
Unhealthy
|
1½
-2¾
|
|
Very
Unhealthy
|
1-1¼
|
|
Hazardous
|
Less
than 1
|
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