Pioneer Fire Air Quality Forecast September 1, 2016

Air Quality Summary Report - Pioneer Fire             For: Thursday, September 1, 2016 

ARA: Mark Fitch (mark_fitch@nps.gov)                                ARA (T): Eric Dobbs (eric.dobbs@freshfromflorida.com)

FIRE, WEATHER AND SMOKE SYNOPSIS Weather:  A broad upper-level low will move into British Columbia today, continuing to produce southwesterly winds aloft and at the surface with increased wind speeds in the mid-to-upper levels over the Pioneer Fire area.  Drier air aloft today will provided mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies throughout the day.  Winds: Up-canyon 5 – 8 mph gusts to 15 after 1:00pm.  Ridges: Southwesterly 14-18 mph with gusts to 22.  Strongest winds in southwest-to-northeast oriented valleys.  Inversion will break between noon and 1pm.  Expect southwesterly transport winds 15 – 20 mph throughout the day today.  Expect smoke plume transport to the northeast. Fire Activity:  Although RH values will be slightly higher this afternoon, active fire behavior will still continue north of highway 17 in the Clear Creek, Deadwood, Scott Creek, Bear Valley, Lorenzo Creek, and Rough Creek drainages and Deadwood Ridge where RH’s will be in the mid teens to low 20’s and winds and slope align. South of HWY 21 east of Lowman, active fire activity is expected in the Crooked River drainage area.  Grass and shrub fuels will be active for uphill runs in valley locations.  Wind/slope alignment will result in moderate to high spread rates.  Fire will be more active around the Clear Creek drainage and Deadwood Creek drainage areas.  Active fire behavior is expected through tomorrow. Smoke Summary:  Smoke will concentrate in the low valleys this morning and mix down to the surface for much of the day before lightening in the late afternoon hours.  Areas that see prolonged sun light today could see clearing around the mid-afternoon hours due to increased mixing near the surface. Today, the most significant smoke impacts will be to Lowman, Stanley, and Garden Valley.  Elevated smoke plumes from the Pioneer and adjacent fires may affect Salmon and local areas.  Challis clear most of the day.
Air Quality Outlook  (smoke related)
Sites with air quality monitors (based on concentration PM 2.5 µg/m3 24-hr avg.)
Site	Yesterday		Today		Tomorrow		Comments for Today (9/1/16)
Fairfield	Good		Good		Good		Mostly clear throughout the day.  Possible haze in the mid to late morning.  Clearing after inversion lift.
Garden City	Good		Good		Good		Mostly clear throughout the day.   Possible haze in the mid to late morning.  Clearing after inversion lift.
Garden Valley  School & ICP/Helibase	USG		USG		Moderate		Smoke in late morning through mid-afternoon before clearing in late afternoon hours.
Idaho City	Moderate		Moderate		Moderate		Elevated surface concentrations in the morning and mid afternoon, clearing by early evening.
Ketchum	Good		Good		Moderate		Mostly clean air throughout the day with possible high-level haze.
Meridian	Good		Good		Good		Mostly clear throughout the day.   Possible haze in the mid to late morning.  Clearing after inversion lift.
Nampa	Good		Good		Good		Mostly clear throughout the day.   Possible haze in the mid to late morning.  Clearing after inversion lift.
Lowman	USG		USG		USG		Elevated concentrations throughout gradually decreasing by late afternoon.
Stanley	Good		Good		Moderate		Clear most of the day with light haze appearing late afternoon.
Salmon	Good		Moderate		Moderate		Elevated smoke concentrations late morning through mid-afternoon, clearing by early evening.
Sites without a monitor
Site		Today		Tomorrow		Comments for Today
Lucky Peak Rec. Area		Good		Good		Conditions improving, but smoke haze will be visible
Centerville		Moderate		Moderate		Morning and early afternoon smoke impacts.
Disclaimer: Conditions may change quickly. These predictions are based on anticipated weather and fire activity.

USG – Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups

Other Websites with Smoke Related Information

For areas without a monitor use the Visibility method to help protect your health from Smoke: https://nmtracking.org

Information about Wildfire Smoke and Your Health: http://www.cdc.gov/features/wildfires/

                                        

Idaho Smoke Blog: https://idsmoke.blogspot.com