Pioneer Fire Air Quality Forecast September 2, 2016

Air Quality Summary Report - Pioneer Fire             For: Thursday, September 2, 2016 

ARA: Mark Fitch (mark_fitch@nps.gov)                                ARA (T): Eric Dobbs (eric.dobbs@freshfromflorida.com)

FIRE, WEATHER AND SMOKE SYNOPSIS Weather:  The center of the upper-level low will continue to move eastward through British Columbia and into western Alberta today.  This will produce southwesterly winds aloft, but at the surface, expect more of a west-southwesterly wind as the day progresses.  Similar wind speeds aloft to yesterday, which will continue to push the bulk of the smoke plume to the northeast of the fire during daytime hours.  Increased cloud cover will be seen for much of the day in the area, with cloud cover lightening up in the late-afternoon to early evening hours.  Up-canyon 5 – 8 mph gusts to 15 after 1:00pm.  Ridges: Southwesterly 14-18 mph with gusts to 23.  Strongest winds in southwest-to-northeast oriented valleys.  Inversion will break between noon and 1pm.  Expect southwesterly transport winds 15 – 20 mph throughout the day today.  Expect smoke plume transport to continue to the northeast. Fire Activity:  Yesterday, the fire grew 15,082 acres putting the current interpreted size to 179,977 acres.  Higher RH values and increased cloud cover will help lower fire activity today; however, moderate to strong winds will still help to keep fire activity relatively active. The most active fire activity will be seen north of HWY 17 and HWY 21 in the Clear Creek, Deadwood, Scott Creek, Bear Valley, Lorenzo Creek, and Rough Creek drainages and Deadwood Ridge where winds and slope align. Grass and shrub fuels will be active for uphill runs in valley locations.  Wind/slope alignment will result in moderate to high spread rates.  Tomorrow, an increase moisture, lightening winds, and a decent chance of showers in the late morning and afternoon, likely decreasing fire activity. Smoke Summary:  Smoke will concentrate in the low valleys this morning and mix down to the surface for much of the day.  Increased cloud cover will decrease the chances of clearing out this afternoon, but could see some lightening late this afternoon as chances for patchy sunlight increases.  Smoke will begin to settle into the valleys this evening, with the biggest impacts for areas northeast, east, and directly south of the fire. Today, the most significant smoke impacts will be to Lowman, Stanley, and Garden Valley.  Elevated smoke plumes from the Pioneer and adjacent fires will affect Salmon and Challis areas today and this evening.
Air Quality Outlook  (smoke related)
Sites with air quality monitors (based on concentration PM 2.5 µg/m3 24-hr avg.)
Site	Yesterday		Today		Tomorrow		Comments for Today (9/2/16)
Fairfield	Good		Good		Good		Possible haze in the mid to late morning.  Clearing after inversion lift.
Garden City	Good		Good		Good		Possible haze in the mid to late morning.  Clearing after inversion lift.
Garden Valley  School & ICP/Helibase	USG		USG		Moderate		Smoke in late morning through mid-afternoon before clearing in late afternoon hours.
Idaho City	Good		Moderate		Moderate		Elevated surface concentrations in the morning and mid afternoon, clearing by early evening.
Ketchum	Good		Moderate		Moderate		Mostly clean air throughout the day with possible high-level haze.
Meridian	Good		Good		Good		Possible haze in the mid to late morning.  Clearing after inversion lift.
Nampa	Good		Good		Good		Possible haze in the mid to late morning.  Clearing after inversion lift.
Lowman	Unhealthy		Unhealthy		USG		Elevated concentrations throughout gradually decreasing by late afternoon.
Stanley	Good		Moderate		USG		Increasing smoke over the next couple of days in morning and early afternoon hours
Salmon	Good		Moderate		Moderate		Elevated smoke concentrations in the afternoon and lingering through the evening.
Sites without a monitor
Site		Today		Tomorrow		Comments for Today
Lucky Peak Rec. Area		Good		Moderate		Possible hazy conditions in the mornings today and tomorrow.
Centerville		Moderate		Moderate		Morning and early afternoon smoke impacts.
Disclaimer: Conditions may change quickly. These predictions are based on anticipated weather and fire activity.

USG – Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups

Other Websites with Smoke Related Information

For areas without a monitor use the Visibility method to help protect your health from Smoke: https://nmtracking.org

Information about Wildfire Smoke and Your Health: http://www.cdc.gov/features/wildfires/

                                        

Idaho Smoke Blog: https://idsmoke.blogspot.com