Pioneer smoke forecast for Saturday, August 27 2016

Air Quality Summary Report - Pioneer Fire             For: Saturday, August 27, 2016 

Air Resource Advisor: Tod Johnson (tod_johnson@nps.gov)

FIRE, WEATHER AND SMOKE SYNOPSIS Weather:  Temps: 72 – 76 high elevation to mid to upper 80’s in the valleys. RH: 15 -19% higher elevations and 11-13% lower valleys. Winds: Up-canyon 3 – 5 mph gusts to 10.  Ridges: West-Southwest 10-14 mph gusts to 18.  Inversion will break between noon and 1 pm. Fire Activity:  Moderate to active fire behavior expected today north of highway 17 in the Clear Creek and Deadwood drainages. Grass and shrub fuels will be active for uphill runs in valley locations.  Wind/slope alignment will result moderate to high spread rates.  Rollout on steep slopes will be an effective spread mechanism resulting in upslope runs.  With warmer and drier conditions, unburned pockets of vegetation within the Pioneer perimeter will become more active. Smoke Summary:  Smoke will concentrate in the low valleys this morning but will scour out in the afternoon when SW to W winds align with east/ west valleys. Today, the most significant smoke impacts will be to Lowman, Stanley and Garden Valley.  The Treasure Valley will continue to experience light smoke impacts from fires burning west of the forecast area.
Air Quality Outlook  (smoke related)   USG – Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups
Sites with air quality monitors (based on concentration PM 2.5 ug/m3 24-hr avg.)
Site	Yesterday		Today		Tomorrow		Comments for Today (8/27/16)
Centerville	data		Good		Good		Good throughout the day
Fairfield	Moderate		Moderate		Good		Pooled smoke will clear this morning. Clear in the afternoon.
Garden City	Moderate		Good		Good		Hazy in morning but clearing in the afternoon
Garden Valley  School & ICP/Helibase	Moderate		USG		Moderate		Conditions improve after inversion break around 1 pm.
Idaho City	Good		Good		Good		Good throughout the day
Ketchum	Good		Moderate		Moderate		This morning’s pooled smoke will clear late morning. Good conditions in the afternoon.
Meridian	Good		Good		Good		Mostly clear throughout the day
Nampa	Moderate		Good		Good		Mostly clear throughout the day
Lowman	USG		USG		Moderate		Improving in the afternoon
Stanley	Good		Moderate		Moderate		Good conditions this morning deteriorating with the onset of W to SW winds. Becoming smoky late morning. Expect periods of heavier smoke in the afternoon and evening.
Sites without a monitor
Site		Today		Tomorrow		Comments for Today
Lucky Peak Rec. Area		Moderate		Good		Conditions improve by late morning
Disclaimer: Conditions may change quickly. These predictions are based on anticipated weather and fire activity.